TIL CreativesAlberta’s oilsands are set to hit record-breaking production levels this year, reaching an average of 3.5 million barrels per day, according to a new forecast by S&P Global Commodity Insights. That marks a five per cent increase from 2024 and could rise to 3.9 million barrels per day by 2030.
However, as production booms, greenhouse gas emissions are also rising, fueling concerns from environmental groups and communities already struggling with the impacts of climate change.
Reason for the record oil production
The rise in oil output isn’t being driven by new megaprojects, but instead by quiet, incremental changes like debottlenecking, upgrades to equipment, and other optimizations at existing facilities.
“The increased trajectory for Canadian oilsands production growth amidst a period of oil price volatility reflects producers' continued emphasis on optimization and the favourable economics that underpin such operations,” said Kevin Birn, chief Canadian oil analyst at S&P Global, in a statement.
Birn noted that producers are finding ways to cut downtime and increase efficiency, drawing from Alberta’s massive oil reserves.
In communities like Fort McMurray, oil means employment and stability. But many workers are conflicted.
Indeed, Alberta’s wildfires have grown more intense and frequent. Scientists and activists link them directly to rising greenhouse gas emissions, many of which are tied to the oilsands.
“We can't lose sight of the fact that greenhouse gas emissions from the oilsands are also hitting record levels,” said Keith Stewart, senior energy strategist with Greenpeace Canada. “The consequences are all around us in the climate change-fueled wildfires, heatwaves, and extreme weather that are disrupting lives and the economy.”
He added, “This is why the federal government needs to implement its long-promised cap on greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas sector.”
This year, North American oil prices have fluctuated wildly, briefly hitting $75 per barrel before dropping below $60. The swings are driven largely by geopolitical tensions and conflicts in the Middle East.
Even so, the oilsands remain profitable, thanks to low break-even costs. The recent launch of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline, which began operating in 2024, has helped boost Canada’s export capacity, further supporting production increases.
Still, questions remain about how long the growth can last. S&P Global expects oilsands production to plateau later this decade, as physical, economic, and environmental constraints set in.
Meanwhile, Alberta’s decision this month to eliminate its gas flaring limit, after exceeding it for two years in a row, has raised alarms among climate scientists. Methane emissions from oilsands tailings ponds are also under renewed scrutiny, with new studies showing they may be far higher than previously estimated.
As oil production in Alberta climbs, so too does the pressure for a federal emissions cap, stricter methane regulations, and a clearer path forward.
However, as production booms, greenhouse gas emissions are also rising, fueling concerns from environmental groups and communities already struggling with the impacts of climate change.
Reason for the record oil production
The rise in oil output isn’t being driven by new megaprojects, but instead by quiet, incremental changes like debottlenecking, upgrades to equipment, and other optimizations at existing facilities.
“The increased trajectory for Canadian oilsands production growth amidst a period of oil price volatility reflects producers' continued emphasis on optimization and the favourable economics that underpin such operations,” said Kevin Birn, chief Canadian oil analyst at S&P Global, in a statement.
Birn noted that producers are finding ways to cut downtime and increase efficiency, drawing from Alberta’s massive oil reserves.
In communities like Fort McMurray, oil means employment and stability. But many workers are conflicted.
Indeed, Alberta’s wildfires have grown more intense and frequent. Scientists and activists link them directly to rising greenhouse gas emissions, many of which are tied to the oilsands.
“We can't lose sight of the fact that greenhouse gas emissions from the oilsands are also hitting record levels,” said Keith Stewart, senior energy strategist with Greenpeace Canada. “The consequences are all around us in the climate change-fueled wildfires, heatwaves, and extreme weather that are disrupting lives and the economy.”
He added, “This is why the federal government needs to implement its long-promised cap on greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas sector.”
A volatile market
This year, North American oil prices have fluctuated wildly, briefly hitting $75 per barrel before dropping below $60. The swings are driven largely by geopolitical tensions and conflicts in the Middle East.
Even so, the oilsands remain profitable, thanks to low break-even costs. The recent launch of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline, which began operating in 2024, has helped boost Canada’s export capacity, further supporting production increases.
Still, questions remain about how long the growth can last. S&P Global expects oilsands production to plateau later this decade, as physical, economic, and environmental constraints set in.
Meanwhile, Alberta’s decision this month to eliminate its gas flaring limit, after exceeding it for two years in a row, has raised alarms among climate scientists. Methane emissions from oilsands tailings ponds are also under renewed scrutiny, with new studies showing they may be far higher than previously estimated.
As oil production in Alberta climbs, so too does the pressure for a federal emissions cap, stricter methane regulations, and a clearer path forward.
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