Aspergillus: All about the fungus that could spark a pandemic like in HBO’s ‘The Last of Us’

As global temperatures rise, a new study warns that Aspergillus—a common fungus capable of causing deadly infections—is set to expand its reach into new regions, putting millions more people at risk.

Conducted by scientists at the University of Manchester, the study used computer simulations to forecast the future spread of Aspergillus, a group of fungi that can cause aspergillosis—a life-threatening lung disease. The findings suggest that climate change will allow certain Aspergillus species to spread further across North America, Europe, China, and Russia.

The research, currently under peer review, comes as fungal infections continue to pose a growing threat to public health. Fungal infections are estimated to kill around 2.5 million people annually—a number that may be significantly underreported due to limited data and awareness.

Fungi: Common, Adaptable, and Dangerous

Fungi are everywhere—in soil, water, compost, and decaying plant matter. While they play a critical role in ecosystems, they can also be deadly. Aspergillus fungi grow as microscopic filaments and spread through spores released into the air. While most people inhale these spores without issue, those with asthma, cystic fibrosis, COPD, or compromised immune systems—such as cancer patients or organ transplant recipients—are at high risk of severe infection.

Mortality rates for aspergillosis range between 20% and 40%, and diagnosis is difficult due to its nonspecific symptoms like cough and fever.

Making matters worse, fungal pathogens are becoming increasingly resistant to antifungal medications, of which only four main classes currently exist.

As the planet warms, fungal species are finding new regions to thrive in. The study found that Aspergillus flavus, which prefers hot, tropical climates, could expand its range by 16% under high fossil fuel use scenarios—moving into parts of northern America, northern China, and Russia.

Aspergillus fumigatus, suited to temperate zones, is predicted to shift northward toward the Arctic, with its potential range increasing by 77.5% by 2100, potentially exposing an additional 9 million Europeans.

In contrast, some regions—like parts of sub-Saharan Africa—may become too hot even for Aspergillus, creating further ecological imbalances.

Warmer temperatures may also make fungi more tolerant of heat, helping them better survive inside human bodies. Meanwhile, extreme weather events like floods and tornadoes can spread spores over long distances. A notable example is the fungal outbreak following the 2011 tornado in Joplin, Missouri.