Israel's missile shield is failing, and shows Trump's Golden Dome unlikely to protect US from Russian and Chinese hypersonic nuke threats

Israel much-vaunted multi-layered defensive system to protect from aerial attacks including missiles, drones, rockets and artillery shells has blunted the enemy attack on several occasions, starting 2011 when it was first deployed. Taking a cue from Israel's success, US President Donald Trump in May 2025 announced the Golden Dome missile umbrella for America, an ambitious space-based defensive system.

Israel claims threats from terror groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, and countries like Iran, Syria, Türkiye, Jordan and Egypt. None of them posses any technological/ military edge over or even parity with Israel. Unlike Israel, which has nuclear weapons, the others have no nukes in their arsenal.

Israel's Iron Dome is designed to intercept and destroy short-range rockets and artillery shells at a range of 4 to 70 kilometres, while David's Sling, and Arrow 2 and 3 along with the US Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) batteries can take out threats at a longer range, even in space.

Yet, after one week of missile and drone barrage by Iran following the June 13, 2025, strike by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Jerusalem's missile shield seemed to be overwhelmed and bleeding, in terms of their response time as well the cost.

From a claimed success rate of almost "80 to 90 percent" in the first couple of days of Iranian attack, the Israeli defense is now able to only intercept only 65% of the incoming missiles. NBC News quoted a "senior intelligence official in Israel" as stating that on June 19 only 65 per cent of Iranian missiles launched in the last 24 hours were intercepted.

The Iranians, too, seemed to have changed their strategy. Starting with ballistic missiles and drones, Iran is now launching highly maneuvrable hypersonic projectiles to hits targets in Israel. As revealed by the Israeli defense officer above, from just 10 percent of Iranian missiles finding their targets, the percentage has gone up to almost 35.

Israel also claims that Iranians are now firing a lot less missiles than they did in the first couple of days. From a reported 150 on the first day on June 13, the number of Iranian missiles flying towards Israel has come down to about three dozen. But many of attacks in the last couple of days have seen Iran firing hypersonic missiles like Fattah-1 and Sejjil, which have tested Israel's defense to the extreme and also punched holes through it.

Stopping one missile costs several interceptors, sometimes going up to even double digits. Yet, as the Israelis are increasingly finding out, there is no guarantee that the incoming missile will be blown up in the skies by its interceptors. According to Israeli financial daily The Marker, Jerusalem is spending nearly 1 billion shekels ($285 million) each nigh in defending the country from Iran's barrage. The cost an Arrow interceptor is $3 million.

Moreover, there is a limited number of interceptors left with a Wall Street Journal report on June 18 claiming for Israel has just enough for the next 10 to 12 more days if the Iranian armed forces continue with their current rate of firing missiles.

Lessons for Trump's proposed Golden Dome

US faces formidable adversaries like Russia and China, and to a lesser extent North Korea and Iran. Russia, China and North Korea have nukes as well as the means to deliver them at targets thousands of miles away. While the Americans claims to have better technology and a massive military, which can hit a target anywhere on the globe, its rivals are no pushover.

Compared to Israel, the US have a near-equal and in some areas a technologically advanced enemy.

Russia is the world largest nuclear power with a huge array of intercontinental ballistic missiles. The country has in the last few years rapidly developed and deployed highly maneuvrable hypersonic missiles.

It's almost a similar case with China which is going ahead with rapid military expansion and the use of cutting-edge technologies. North Korea, too, has tested missiles which can reach the western coast of the US.

To counter such threats, Trump in May 2025 announced the Golden Dome defence system. Estimated to cost around $175 billion, Trump stated that the shield would be operational by 2029, just before his term as the 47th President of the United States comes to an end.

Mirroring Israel's system that has been active since 2011 but is essentially able to intercept short and medium range rockets and missiles, the US shield will face ICBMs and hypersonic missiles.

As seen in the ongoing Israel-Iran was, a salvo of missiles can overwhelm a defensive shield leading to some of the projectiles hitting targets on ground.

Golden Dome's big advantage is touted to be the ability to keep and eye from space and detect a missile in the boost stage, the short span of time when it is being launched. A boost phase lasts about a minute, and is detectable even from space-based assets.

While it's theoretically possible to target missiles during the boost phase, to be able to track missile launches by Russia and China, both of which can do so from almost any part of the globe, is a Herculean task.

American Enterprise Institute senior fellow in the Foreign and Defense Policy program Todd Harrison says such a capability needs hundreds, even thousands of satellites. "It takes about 950 interceptors spread out in orbit around the Earth to ensure that at least one is always in range to intercept a missile during its boost phase," he to told Citizen Tribune news portal.

If Russia or China fire multiple missiles simultaneously, the number of US satellites required goes up exponentially. A launch of five missiles together by any one of the US rivals means over 4,500 spy satellites.

Moreover, any US move to operationalize the Golden Dome will be countered by Russia and China with the deployment of more missiles, many of them nuclear tipped, and use of their space-based capabilities.