Trick or TACO? Why has Trump set a 2-week deadline for Iran?

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Thursday that President Donald Trump will decide whether the US should get involved in the Israel-Iran conflict within the next two weeks. "Based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks," Trump said in the statement read out by Leavitt.

Trump's decision to delay making any decision on the Iran-Israel conflict for two weeks points at his signature approach to deal making -- to make a hard decision and then dilute it or reverse it altogether. He has imposed and then reversed or brought down tariffs on numerous occasions. His style has led to coining of an acronym, TACO, meaning "Trump always chickens out," which was used to describe an investment approach in response to Trump's volatile tariff policies.

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Is Trump going TACO with Iran? Trump had claimed on Wednesday that Iran has reached out to negotiate. “Iran wants to negotiate,” he told reporters. But he quickly added, “I said it’s very late.” According to Trump, Iranian negotiators had even suggested visiting Washington. “They suggested they come to the White House,” he said. “But it’s difficult.” He appeared unmoved by the offer. “Two very simple words: unconditional surrender,” Trump said. “I’ve had it.” That remark followed his earlier comment: “Iran’s got a lot of trouble and wants to negotiate,” before adding, “They should have negotiated.”

A day after signalling that he was not interested in negotiations with Iran any more, Trump has reversed his stance to say there is still scope for negotiations. Trump faces several challenges: a US involvement in the conflict can result in heavy damage to its assets and soldiers; there is the risk of a wider war breaking out with other players jumping in; and Trump's MAGA base is still unconvinced that the US should get drawn into another foreign war.

What could be Trump's 14-day Iran strategy?

Trump finds himself in a complex situation where various pulls and pushes keep him undecided. However, his two-week ploy could actually be a well-planned move. Some experts have told The New York Times that it is also possible that Trump is trying to deceive the Iranians and get them to let their guard down and surprise them with a sudden move. “That could be cover for a decision to strike, immediately,” James G. Stavridis, a retired Navy admiral and the former supreme U.S. commander in Europe, said on CNN. “Maybe this is a very clever ruse to lull the Iranians into a sense of complacency.”

While Trump keeps the world, including the Iranians, guessing whether the US would join Israel's bombardment of Iran's nuclear and missile sites, the US military has moved some aircraft and ships from bases in the Middle East that may be vulnerable to any potential Iranian attack, two US officials told Reuters on Wednesday. One of the officials said aircraft that were not in hardened shelters had been moved from Al Udeid base in Qatar and naval vessels had been moved from a port in Bahrain, where the military's 5th fleet is located.

As per the NYT report, Trump's two-week deadline allows time for a second American aircraft carrier to get into place, giving US forces a better chance to counter the inevitable Iranian retaliation while Israel too will get more time to destroy the air defenses around the Fordo enrichment site, Iran's key nuclear site which can be destroyed only with American bombing.

Trump's latest statement that there's still a substantial chance of negotiations could be aimed at pleasing his European allies. The European powers, who were not part of Iran's nuclear negotiations with the US, had grown increasingly frustrated by the US negotiating strategy in the talks. They deemed some of the demands unrealistic, while fearing the possibility of a weak initial political framework that would lead to open-ended negotiations. Two diplomats told Reuters there were no great expectations for a breakthrough in Geneva, where the European Union's foreign policy chief will also attend.

Trump could also believe that the pounding of Iranian nuclear sites by Israel, which is likely to intensify in the two-week period, might soften Iranian position. The plan that the US last offered to Iran was a ban on all uranium enrichment. An Iran weakened by Israeli strikes and facing the threat of the US joining the conflict might be more willing to consider that now.

(With inputs from agencies)