Trump's trade war about to leave Americans with empty bathroom shelves? Check details

US President Donald Trump's trade war is raising an alarm among paper suppliers — one that could lead to a dreaded shortage in US supermarkets of a household staple: toilet paper. Suzano SA, Brazil's top pulp exporter, has issued a dire warning that Trump's new tariffs are disrupting shipments of a key material used in manufacturing toilet paper and other hygiene products.

Suzano SA produces bleached hardwood pulp used by many American manufacturers. It has reported a 20 percent drop in US-bound exports in April compared to the same time last year, according to the New York Post.

“In response to the tariffs, we’ve had to pass increased costs on to US buyers,” said Suzano CEO João Alberto de Abreu to Bloomberg News. Brazil, along with many other countries—excluding China—now faces a 10% tariff on exports to the US.

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US to face shortage of toilet paper?

The São Paulo-based company warned that continued trade barriers could worsen supply chain tensions and push prices higher. Brazil, like other US trading partners with the exception of China, currently faces a 10% universal tariff on exports.

The warning revives memories of the 2020 pandemic when there was a shortage of toilet papers, sparked by panic buying and pandemic-related logistics snarls, remain fresh for many consumers. While current store shelves remain stocked, industry analysts say it wouldn’t take much to trigger renewed instability in the paper supply chain — especially if US buyers begin stockpiling in anticipation of further trade disruptions.

Suzano is not the only one raising concerns. Several other global suppliers have flagged the potential for new bottlenecks in essential goods if the tariff fight escalates.

The company’s warnings also highlight a broader trend: the risk that trade disputes, once focused on high-tech or luxury goods, are now ensnaring basic commodities critical to everyday life.

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Brazil, one of the world’s largest producers of pulp, has become a flashpoint in the latest trade skirmish. With the US hiking tariffs across a range of imports as part of Trump’s aggressive trade policy, Brazilian exporters are scrambling to protect market share while navigating higher costs.

Suzano, which was a key supplier during the pandemic-era toilet paper crunch, says it is working to adapt. But the company cautions that sustained pressure from tariffs could create ripple effects that hit American consumers where it counts: the bathroom.

“Pulp isn’t just another commodity,” Abreu said. “It’s at the heart of some of the most essential products we use every day.”

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Last month, Apollo Global Management issued a stark warning that U.S. store shelves could be empty within weeks due to steep tariffs on Chinese imports proposed by Donald Trump—an economic shock that could potentially trigger a recession by summer.

Torsten Slok, Apollo’s chief economist, presented a timeline detailing how the disruption of supply chains could unfold: halted shipments from China by mid-May, product shortages and declining retail sales by late May, followed by job losses in both the trucking and retail sectors.

While some analysts suggest that current inventory levels might cushion the initial impact, Slok warned of “COVID-like shortages” as Chinese goods stop arriving, potentially bringing large segments of the economy to a standstill and pushing the U.S. into a recession by mid-2025.