CRUDE OIL PRICE IMPACT ON INDIA
India’s soybean acreage to decline as farmers shift to corn, sugarcane
Indian farmers are expected to decrease soybean cultivation this year, potentially shifting to corn and sugarcane due to better profitability. This shift could lead to reduced domestic soybean output, compelling India to increase its imports of edible oils like palm oil, soyoil, and sunflower oil from countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina, and Brazil.
An import duty hike promised to support Indian farmers. Instead, prices crashed
Oilseed farmers in India are feeling pressure from both sides—crashing domestic prices and increasing dumping. Experts say crushing margins determine oilseed demand; if oil meal exports are not profitable, mills will not process locally produced oilseeds—which is leaving farmers in the lurch.
I-Sec maintains Buy on Oil India, revises target price to Rs 530
ICICI Securities maintains a Buy call on Oil India, revising the target price to Rs 530 from Rs 580 due to a weaker pricing environment and adjusted production estimates. Despite EPS revisions for FY26/27E, the brokerage anticipates a 24% upside from the current market price, driven by attractive valuations and a projected EPS CAGR of 22% between FY26-28E.
Oil edges down as potential higher OPEC+ output eyed
Oil prices experienced a slight dip as investors anticipated a potential increase in crude oil output from OPEC+ during their upcoming meeting. The group is expected to finalize July output, potentially increasing production by 411,000 barrels per day. Trade talk extensions between the U.S. and EU provided some support, while the possibility of failed U.S.
Oil climbs after Trump extends EU trade talks deadline to July
Oil prices saw a rise in early Asian trade. This happened after US President Donald Trump extended the trade talk deadline with the European Union. Concerns about US tariffs on the EU have eased. Limited progress in US-Iran nuclear talks also helped. US firms cut operating oil rigs due to lower prices. OPEC+ may increase output next month.
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Saudi Aramco weighs asset sales to fund global expansion
Saudi Aramco is considering selling some of its assets to generate funds as it expands internationally and deals with lower oil prices. The oil giant, a key source of Saudi revenue, is seeking ways to improve efficiency and cut costs amid pressure from the government to boost profitability. This move comes as the kingdom faces a widening budget deficit.
Oil rises on short-covering, Iran nuclear talks in focus
Oil prices increased on Friday. This happened as U.S. buyers adjusted positions before the Memorial Day weekend. Concerns about U.S.-Iran nuclear talks also played a role. Traders fear supply disruptions if talks fail. Donald Trump suggested tariffs on EU goods. OPEC+ may increase output in July. The market awaits the impact of tariffs on oil demand.
US stock futures take major blow: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq tumble as China chip war escalates, Target misses earnings, Trump tariffs rattle retail, and possible Israeli strike on Iran fuels global market jitters
US stock market today saw a sharp dip in futures as rising US-China chip tensions and disappointing Target earnings triggered fresh market anxiety. With Dow futures down 0.8% and S&P 500 futures falling 0.6%, investors are growing uneasy over renewed tech trade disputes and fallout from Trump’s tariffs. Target’s weak quarterly performance added to the concerns, as it refused to say if it would raise prices. Meanwhile, rising oil prices, debt fears, and uncertainty over Trump's tax bill added more weight. This unfolding mix of global trade tension and domestic economic issues is pulling the markets into a volatile spin.
Big jump in coconut oil prices hits Indian households
Coconut oil prices in India have surged, with Marico and Dabur raising prices by nearly 40% due to a 40-50% spike in copra costs. Marico, holding over 50% of the market, anticipates stable commodity prices ahead. Globally, coconut oil prices have hit record highs, driven by poor weather in Southeast Asia.
Oil falls on stronger US dollar, possibility of higher OPEC+ output
Oil prices declined on Friday. The U.S. dollar's strength impacted the market. OPEC+ considered increasing crude oil output. This possibility further pressured prices. A previous report indicated potential accelerated oil hikes by OPEC+. U.S. crude oil storage saw a surge. The market will monitor U.S. oil and gas rig count data. This data serves as a future supply indicator.
GIFT Nifty up 40 points; here's the trading setup for today's session
Indian equity markets declined on Thursday, influenced by negative cues from the US market. Despite this, optimism surrounding US-India trade and strong domestic economic factors are expected to keep the market within a certain range. The rupee weakened, and FIIs increased their net short positions in the futures market.
OPEC+ may flood market with more oil in July, risking weaker crude prices
OPEC+ is considering a significant oil supply increase of 411,000 barrels per day for July, a move that could exceed market needs and has already caused prices to fall. This potential hike signals a shift towards prioritizing market share over price defense, influenced by factors like internal quota adherence and external pressures.
How Trump's trade war is transforming Canada's oil exports to China
Donald Trump's trade policies have significantly reshaped commodity markets, prompting Canada to redirect its seaborne crude exports towards China, even after the US dropped proposed tariffs. This shift highlights a desire to diversify markets and reduce reliance on the US Meanwhile, sanctions on Venezuelan oil have unexpectedly increased demand and prices for Canadian crude in the United States.
Rupee trades in narrow range against US dollar in early trade
The Indian rupee traded narrowly on Thursday, influenced by a weak dollar index but weighed down by high crude oil prices and consistent dollar demand. While broad dollar weakness and appreciating Asian currencies offer some support, rising US bond yields and geopolitical tensions create headwinds. Technically, the USD/INR pair is expected to trade within a range, facing resistance at 85.
ONGC Q4 profit drops 35% to Rs 6,448 cr on higher exploratory costs write-off
ONGC's fourth-quarter profit declined by 35% to ₹6,448 crore. This was due to increased exploration expenses. Revenue saw a slight rise of 1% to ₹34,982 crore. The full-year profit also decreased by 12% to ₹35,610 crore. The company's board approved a dividend of Rs 1.25 per share. They also extended support to Opal for debt raising.
Is World War imminent? As Israel plans to strike Iran's nuclear installations, here's what the consequences could be
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facilities may be closer than expected, as new US intelligence suggests growing Israeli preparations. This comes while the Trump administration is still pushing for a nuclear deal with Iran. With intercepted communications, military movements, and diplomatic pressure rising, fears of a regional conflict are mounting. The situation puts both Israel and the US at a critical crossroads over Iran's nuclear future. Will diplomacy hold, or will military action take the lead? This report dives deep into the intelligence, strategies, and stakes behind a possible Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear sites.
India's Russian oil imports hit 10-month high on strong demand for ESPO crude
India's Russian crude oil imports are set to reach a 10-month high in May, nearing 1.8 million barrels per day, driven by increased demand for lighter grades like ESPO Blend. This surge in demand from Indian refiners is expected to continue into July, impacting spot premiums for ESPO cargoes delivered to China as well.
Oil rises 1% on reports Israel preparing strike on Iranian nuclear facilities
Oil prices saw a rise following reports of a potential Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. This development has sparked fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East. Brent crude futures increased. US crude futures also experienced a surge. Concerns exist about Iran potentially blocking the Strait of Hormuz. US crude oil stocks rose, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell.
Govt plans to spend Rs 85k crore on homebuilt oil tankers
State-owned oil companies currently operate an aging fleet that's mostly on-charter from global companies and the shipping and petroleum ministries want to change that, said the people, who asked not to be identified citing rules. The plan's first phase involves purchasing 79 ships, of which 30 of them would be medium-range vessels, they said.
Core sector growth slows to 8-month low in April
India's core sector output experienced a slowdown in April, expanding by a mere 0.5%, the slowest pace in eight months. This deceleration was primarily driven by reduced production in cement, steel, and refinery sectors.
Will US sanction relief to Iran crush China's 'teapot' oil refineries, upset global oil markets?
A potential lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iran's oil exports threatens Chinese independent refineries reliant on discounted Iranian crude, potentially forcing closures. Increased Iranian oil supply could further depress global oil prices, impacting Saudi Arabia's price war. State-owned Chinese refineries and the broader refining industry could benefit from this shift.
Rupee rises 16 paise to 85.41 against US dollar in early trade
The Indian rupee strengthened to 85.41 against the US dollar, buoyed by a weaker dollar and strong foreign fund inflows. However, concerns over oil prices, US credit rating downgrade, and upcoming China factory data are expected to keep the rupee in a narrow trading range. Forex reserves increased, providing a buffer, but may not halt the rupee's depreciation.
Oil little changed as investors eye Iran-US talks, China data
Oil prices remained steady as investors monitored Iran-U.S. nuclear talks and awaited crucial Chinese economic data amid trade tensions. Brent crude slightly decreased to $65.36 a barrel, while U.S. WTI crude rose to $62.52. Uncertainty surrounding Iran's nuclear ambitions and rising tensions between Estonia and Russia also influenced the market. U.S.
India-US trade deal, Q4 results among 6 factors likely to impact D-St activity this week
The Indian equity market experienced a significant rally, closing above 25,000 and recovering losses since October 2024, fueled by Operation Sindoor and positive market sentiment. Investors are closely watching corporate earnings, potential progress on the India-US trade deal, and foreign capital flows.
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Ambit Capital prefers bonds over equities in 2025; suggests 75:25 asset allocation
As a result, we believe that markets can remain volatile due to external factors (tariff war & India-Pakistan conflict) in the near-term, but expect fundamentals i.e., earnings & GDP growth to drive returns over the long-term.
Goods exports at 6-month high in April, trade deficit widens on imports surge
India's merchandise exports surged by 9.03% in April, reaching a six-month high, driven by a 27% increase in exports to the US. However, a significant rise in imports led to a higher trade deficit. Increased exports of electronics and engineering goods contributed to the growth, while rising crude oil and gold imports also played a role.
OPEC sees India's oil demand rising 3.4% in 2025, double the pace of China
OPEC projects India's oil demand to surge, outpacing China's growth in 2025 and 2026, driven by a robust economy and government support. While the US remains the top consumer, India's demand will rise significantly, fueled by transportation, manufacturing, and infrastructure projects. Diesel will be the primary driver, with crude imports hitting record highs, led by Russia as the top supplier.
WPI at 13-month low in April on declining food prices
India's wholesale price inflation saw a significant drop in April. It reached a 13-month low, settling at 0.85%. This decline was primarily driven by falling food prices. Data indicates a deflation in primary food articles after 27 months. Fuel and power segments also contributed to this decrease. Experts anticipate further moderation in WPI inflation in the near future.
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