GDP IMPACT OF WAR
Despite US-China thaw, India still a magnet for global supply chains: TCI’s Vineet Agarwal
Logistics costs as a percentage of GDP are still quite high in India; this needs to come down. If we’re not cost-competitive, we risk losing out to countries like Vietnam and Malaysia, says Vineet Agarwal, Managing Director of TCI.
Wall Street futures, dollar ease in wake of credit blow
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent used television interviews on Sunday to dismiss the downgrade, while warning trade partners they would be hit with maximum tariffs if they did not offer deals in "good faith".
Waronomics: India-Pak wars won’t stop at LoC, they’ll hit the economy hard, from trade to balance sheets
A potential India-Pakistan conflict poses significant economic risks to India, potentially wiping out a substantial portion of its GDP. Key sectors like trade, tourism, and energy face disruptions, impacting businesses and investor confidence. Preparedness through liquidity, supply chain diversification, and robust communication is crucial for businesses to navigate wartime economic challenges and ensure resilience.
Is economic nationalism the next big stress test?
Trump's threat of universal tariffs has sparked global economic anxiety, potentially unraveling globalisation amidst existing disruptions. The WTO has forecast trade contraction, especially impacting USA-China commerce. India faces GDP growth reduction and export income losses, prompting diversification efforts.
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Ambit Capital prefers bonds over equities in 2025; suggests 75:25 asset allocation
As a result, we believe that markets can remain volatile due to external factors (tariff war & India-Pakistan conflict) in the near-term, but expect fundamentals i.e., earnings & GDP growth to drive returns over the long-term.
Japan's economy shrinks more than expected as US tariff hit looms
Japan's economy unexpectedly contracted in the March quarter, shrinking by 0.7%, due to weak private consumption and declining exports. This downturn, the first in a year, raises concerns about the country's fragile recovery amidst potential disruptions from U.S. trade policies. Economists suggest the data may prompt calls for increased fiscal spending to bolster growth.
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Global macro uncertainty creating pockets of opportunity for India: Hari Shyamsunder
Hari Shyamsunder of Franklin Templeton discusses the Indian market. He notes a correction since last September. Initial causes remain unresolved. Focus shifts to quarterly numbers and FY25 trends. Global macro factors, like interest rates and tariffs, pose challenges. Tariff war impacts are negative. India could gain from supply chain shifts. Earnings momentum is weak. Private banks offer relative value.
ETMarkets Smart Talk: Sell in May? FIIs might pause, but earnings will steer market: Hemant Kanawala
He discusses the impact of potential US tariffs on the pharma sector, the benefits of falling crude oil prices for India, and why a disciplined investment approach is crucial in a sideways market.
World War 3: Is Russia preparing to attack NATO? Latvia issues warning
Latvia's intelligence service reveals Russia's military build-up and intensified surveillance on NATO in the Baltic Sea, raising concerns about regional security. Russia is expanding its armed forces and reorganizing military districts near Latvia, prompting increased vigilance from NATO. While an immediate threat is low, Russia's actions and potential escalation scenarios are closely monitored.
Commodity Radar: Gold prices fall by Rs 2,400/10 gram amid “total reset” in US-China trade relations. Time to buy on dips?
Gold prices on MCX fell over Rs 2,400 per 10g amid easing US-China trade tensions and a temporary India-Pak ceasefire. Analysts point to weakening momentum, with technical indicators suggesting a near-term pullback. While global fundamentals remain supportive, softening tariffs and stronger economic data could cap gains. Traders are advised to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy above Rs 93,000.
Steel Stocks: Uptick in domestic demand, dip in Chinese exports & dip in coal prices: will these push steel stocks up?
Indian steel companies faced challenges due to fears of a global slowdown and rising imports, which impact profitability. However, a revival is expected in the upcoming quarters, driven by lower raw material costs and a safeguard duty on imports. Long-term growth is anticipated, supported by infrastructure demand and softening Chinese exports, though global uncertainties remain a major concern.
US inflation starting to stir as Trump tariff threat looms
US consumer prices are expected to have increased in April, with economists anticipating a more pronounced impact from higher tariffs over time. This has led to growing consumer apprehension about inflation and the economy. Meanwhile, companies are navigating the challenge of mitigating tariff costs through price hikes while trying to avoid deterring consumers.
India-Pakistan ceasefire, FII action among 8 factors that could impact D-Street this week
Indian benchmark indices ended with weekly declines of 1.4% amid growing tension between India and Pakistan. But a Saturday peace breakthrough between the two countries could calm the markets when they resume trade on Monday.
As India-Pakistan conflict grows, here's how equity markets, GDP have navigated wars
As tensions escalate between India and Pakistan, a historical review shows past conflicts had limited impact on equity markets but often hurt GDP. Nifty reactions ranged from sharp rallies during Kargil to mild dips post-Pulwama. JM Financial notes that while past wars dented economic growth, India’s economy today is more resilient and better equipped to absorb shocks.
Should the market focus on tariff war and not India-Pakistan conflict? Samir Arora explains
Helios Capital's Samir Arora advises against panicking over geopolitical tensions, emphasizing India's de-escalatory stance. He suggests focusing on the tariff war's positive impact on India, including a potential shift in global investment flows away from the U.S. Arora believes short-term market reactions to events are often unreasonable, advocating for a long-term investment perspective and rational decision-making.
War drums with Pakistan may force FIIs to hit brakes after Rs 50,000 crore buying spree
FIIs have pumped over Rs 50,000 crore into Indian markets since mid-April, but rising India-Pakistan tensions may test their resolve. Experts warn that a prolonged conflict could hurt inflows and derail fiscal plans. While analysts advise caution and defensive positioning, India’s strong macros and limited trade exposure to Pakistan may shield the economy from major shocks.
Is China's economic growth sustainable amid uncertain trade relations and domestic challenges?
China's Q1 2025 GDP grew by 5.4% despite trade war challenges, driven by exports and manufacturing. Stimulus measures aim to counter trade tensions, but concerns remain about weak domestic demand and a strained property market. The focus shifts to boosting internal consumption, attracting foreign investment, and expanding ties with the 'global south'.
ETMarkets Smart Talk | Is gold the new growth asset? 3 reasons why yellow metal rose 28% in 4 months: Ajit Banerjee
We are all aware markets do not like uncertainty of any type, and by nature, it is forward-looking. Hence, it reacts either positively or negatively depending upon the underlying developments.
Moody's sees risks from Indo-Pak tensions after cutting India's GDP growth forecast to 6.3% for 2025
Moody's Ratings has revised India's GDP growth forecast for 2025 downward to 6.3% due to anticipated global economic slowdown driven by US policy uncertainties and trade restrictions. Geopolitical tensions, including those between India and Pakistan, pose further downside risks. While India's 2026 growth projection remains at 6.5%, global trade and investment are expected to be dampened by these factors.
Revisiting the economics of tariffs
Escalating tariff battles, exemplified by the US-China trade war and reminiscent of the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Act, threaten global economic welfare by reducing trade volume and creating inefficiencies. Despite arguments for trade restrictions to address deficits, the US benefits from capital inflows and specialization in high-tech industries. Protectionist policies risk undermining these advantages and triggering retaliatory cycles.
Canada faces a summer of shortages even after Mark Carney's victory, here's the reason behind it
Canada faces a summer of shortages even after Mark Carney's victory, and the story behind it is more serious than it first seems. With U.S. President Donald Trump imposing steep tariffs on Canadian goods, Canada’s economy is feeling the heat—from rising inflation to empty grocery shelves. Despite Carney’s election win and strong stance on trade, Canadians could see job losses, higher prices, and slower growth.
DeepSeek, Temu, TikTok- China tech is starting to pull ahead
China is rapidly catching up—and in some areas, surpassing—the US in AI and tech innovation. While America still holds key advantages, it must abandon the assumption of dominance. China's fast diffusion, manufacturing strength, and open-source AI strategy have shifted the race's dynamics, demanding urgent adaptation from the US to stay competitive.
Global factories struggle to overcome Trump tariffs, uncertainty
Uncertainty surrounding tariffs is causing businesses to delay decisions, leading to a synchronized hit on the world economy. Even potential trade deals may not immediately reverse the damage to supply chains and business confidence.
Performance of IT sector stocks likely to remain subdued over next few quarters but are analysts recommending a buy?
Delayed recovery of discretionary spending will amplify stock price volatility of IT sector companies.
India needs more guard rails to address concerns of equity in the wake of Trump’s trade war
Donald Trump's first 100 days were met with a US GDP contraction, defying growth expectations. This downturn, partly due to increased imports anticipating tariffs, raises concerns about a potential recession. Experts disagree on the long-term impact, but Trump's trade policies and global economic shifts pose challenges for India's growth prospects, requiring careful policy adjustments.
5 world market themes for the week ahead
Global markets brace for a busy week. The Federal Reserve leads central bank meetings amid economic concerns. China's trade data will reveal tariff impacts. Elections in Australia, Singapore, and Romania could shift political landscapes. UK shows positive trends despite global trade tensions. Brazil considers rate hikes while Poland eyes cuts. All eyes are on economic indicators and political decisions.
Travel demand decline: How US economy faces billions in losses due to Trump trade policies
Weakening travel demand, fueled by trade war uncertainties and anti-American sentiment, threatens to erase billions from the U.S. economy. Airlines are retracting forecasts, and analysts project a significant hit to GDP from reduced foreign travel spending. Domestic spending is also declining amid recession worries, further impacting the U.S. travel and tourism industry.
Where things stand in the US-China trade war
China has said it has received overtures from the United States for talks on tariffs -- but warned it will need concessions as proof of "sincerity" before any negotiations can take place. "China is certainly willing (to negotiate), and so is evaluating and observing the US side's sincerity -- is it all just bluff and bluster... or is it actually something real that could yield plans for serious talks?"
Did Trump's tariffs hurt US economy in first quarter? Here's what the GDP report card says
The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter as President Donald Trump's economic agenda took effect, according to new data released on Wednesday. It is the weakest GDP print since the same period in 2002. The slowdown comes amid growing concerns that Trump's wide-ranging tariffs could disrupt the U.S. economy, with some economists raising the chances of the U.S. slipping into a recession in 2025.
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