Titan Q4 preview: Revenue may rise by up to 14% YoY, PAT growth estimates swing between 0.7% and 19%

Titan Company, which will announce its Q4FY25 earnings on Thursday, is expected to report a growth in its net profits riding on a double-digit uptick in its revenue. However, the profit is projected in a wide range of 0.7% to 19% according to estimates by four brokerages.

The bottom line is expected to fall between Rs 792 crore and Rs 900. Meanwhile, the revenue for the January-March quarter of FY25 is likely to grow between 3.2% and 14% i.e. in the range of Rs 11,617 crore Rs 14,238 crore.

The estimates of Nuvama Institutional Equities, Mirae Asset Sharekhan, Kotak Institutional Equities and Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL).

The most conservative PAT and revenue estimates have been given by Kotal while MOFSL remains most bullish among its peers.

Here’s what the brokerages recommended:

Nuvama

Titan is expected to report a PAT (core) of Rs 803 crore according to Nuvama’s estimates, reflecting a modest increase of 2.1% YoY while a sequential decline of 19% compared to the previous quarter.

Revenue for the period is likely to stand at Rs 12,719 crore, marking a 13% YoY rise while a drop of 21% QoQ.

EBITDA is expected to come in at Rs 1,318 crore, registering a 19% increase over the same period last year but falling 12.7% from the preceding quarter. Despite the sequential decline in earnings, operational efficiency improved, with EBITDA margins expanding to 10.4% — an increase of 0.5 percentage points YoY and 1% QoQ.

“Titan posted strong growth of 25% in its jewellery business with LFL coming in at 15%. Tanishq’s network expanded by 9% YoY. We expect some moderation in EBIT margins of the jewellery business driven by higher marketing investments and seasonality,” Nuvama said in a note.

“Growth in core jewellery including studded ex-coins would be in the range of 21–22%. We estimate the studded share to be 27–28% for the quarter versus 33% in Q4FY24 given slow growth compared with the plain gold jewellery. *includes bullion sales in Q4FY24. Excluding this, growth is 25%,” it said further.

Mirae Asset Sharekhan

The company reported an adjusted profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 848 crore for the quarter, marking a 10% year-on-year increase. Revenue stood at Rs 14,238 crore, reflecting a healthy 14% growth compared to the same period last year. Operational performance also improved, with the EBITDA margin rising by 45 basis points year-on-year to 10%, indicating better cost management and operating efficiency.

Buy for a price target of Rs 4,067.

Kotak Equities

Titan’s PAT is seen around Rs 792 crore, which could be a 0.7% YoY increase, but a decline of 33% on a sequential basis. The revenue is pegged around Rs 11,617 crore, up 3.2% compared to the same quarter last year, though it dropped sharply by 28% on a sequential basis.

The EBITDA could come in at Rs 1,263 crore and may rise 14% YoY but while declining 28% sequentially. The EBITDA margin for the quarter could be reported at 10.9%, an improvement of 101 basis points YoY but 9 basis points lower when compared to the previous quarter.

“We model 14% yoy growth in standalone jewelry sales (excluding sale of gold bullion; versus 25.5% yoy growth in 2Q/3QFY25), weaker than management’s expectation in the beginning of quarter, largely due to sharp surge in gold prices (up 15-20% since December-end),” he added.

“We expect about 200 bps drop in salience of studded jewellery to 31% due to strong demand for gold jewellery and also due to underlying weakness in studded jewellery sales,” Kotak review added.

A 14% growth in watches division and a 17.5% growth in eyewear is expected.

Motilal Oswal

The company is expected to report a net profit of Rs 900 crore for the quarter, reflecting a 19% YoY growth, but a decline of 26% sequentially. Revenue could come around Rs 14,200 crore, marking a 14% increase over the same period last year, although it dropped 20% compared to the previous quarter.

EBITDA may stand at Rs 1,400 crore, up 18% on a YoY basis but down 27% QoQ, indicating a sharp sequential contraction despite healthy annual growth.

“We model 18% standalone revenue growth (excluding bullion) and Tanishq LTL growth of 14% in 4QFY25. Standalone Jewelry EBIT (ex-bullion) margin is expected to contract 90 bps YoY to 11.2% due to a reduction in the studded share and an increase in competitive intensity. We expect healthy double-digit growth in watches, eyewear, and other business,” MOFSL said in a note.

“We expect a rise in finance costs, given an increase in GML rates for most jewelry companies. For TTAN, the rates have increased to 4% from 2.5% earlier,” the note said further.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)